Agora Outlook
Publisher Ken Davidson
Fax 250-860-2051
e-mail davidson@silk.net
www.agoraoutlook.com
June Expiration June 11th 1999
Davidsons View
This week the market really began to slide after Japan reported that its economy grew a much stronger than expected 1.9% during the first 3 months of the year. The rise in GDP was led by domestic components, capital spending and consumer spending, which increases the likelihood that the growth was not just a one quarter affair. The sharp GDP rise also raises the risks of a global reflation occurring and increases the chances of a Fed rate hike. The Consumer Price Index is out next week but Thursday's report from Japan has magnified the risk of a Fed move, even if the Consumer Price index report comes in weaker than expected.
The news from of Japan was that its economy grew at a very robust pace. The health of that nation is critical to the high valuations that currently exist in our equity markets. We have been the consumer of last resort. It is simply not possible for us to buy everything the world produces; we need other economies to be able to compete on both the production as well as the consumption side. Therefore, the news out of Japan has to be encouraging but bad for our markets. The Japanese markets rallied nearly 3% on the news. It's hopeful that the strength appearing in Japan will earn the respect of international investors and attract some foreign capital. I suspect that money will slowly begin to find its way from our fixed-income markets into theirs. This was evident Thursday and Friday as our bond market tanked.
An important factor for the stock market is that the 30-year bond is now sitting right on its long-term upper trend line that was started in late 1994. If this line is broken there is a possibility that 30-year interest rates could move to over 7.00%. This would be horrific for stocks. It could also mean that more money would move to Japanese markets. The key numbers that traders will now be focusing on are the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This number is important because last month it came in well above expectation and a strong report this month would certainly heighten speculation for a rate hike. This could cause the market to slide, but with all of the discounting this past week, the market may just put off any real selling until after the Fed is finished meeting on the 29th & 30th. We also have triple witch expiration on Friday. That alone is enough to keep everyone confused, so moves in either direction should be short lived with some strong volatility.
Technically
At this point, the S&P 500 has made a 62% retracement of the uptrend that started in March 1999. This has been deeper than the kind of pull back we would expect if the market was still strong. However, the market did get a bit overdone to the upside in terms of its movement. Over the past three years, the SPX has breached the 20-week exponential moving average less than half a dozen times, and until the market closes below the Weekly20EMA, we will give the market time to show us what it wants to do.
This week has revealed a very oversold market short term and almost oversold on a daily basis. The Mclellan Oscillator is now quite oversold so a bounce could come at anytime. However, the summation index has now definitely moved to the downside. The 5-day Arms isn't even close to the buy zone yet as it is staying around the 1.00 area. The 5-day Arms index will need to go above 6.00 for a cycle low. The 10-day ARMS index is in worse shape than the 5-day being only nine ticks from an overbought position. This indicates that a very few amount of stocks are trying to hold up the market
Market sentiment this week according to the Put/Call ratio has risen but is still indicating the market is overbought. Short Interest is rising, but not high enough to indicate that there should be a rally in the market. It does look like the ratio of Bulls/Bulls + Bears by Investors Intelligences are reflecting investors getting worried however which is a good sign. For now it looks like the market is stuck at the all time high of 1375.98 and the recent low of 1277.31. We will watch this decline to see how far it goes and will be watching for signs of failure along the way. Resistance overhead is at 1327, 1350.50, 1367 and 1375. Support is at 1277, 1260 and 1220.
Mclellan Oscillator: -86 -100 oversold +100 overbought
Summation Index: +1127
Five day arms: .95 .80 and below, overbought 1.00 and above, oversold
Ten day arms: .89 .80 and below, overbought 1.00 and above, oversold
Bulls: 58.3 previous week 61.6 50% plus overbought/bearish
Bears: 28.7 previous week 27.7 50% plus oversold /bullish
Correction: 13.0 previous week 10.7
Five day Qvix: 24.84
Economic Effects
Productivity in the nonfarm business sector slowed to a 3.5% annual pace in the first quarter of the year, revising its first estimate of 4% growth in productivity. Unit labor costs rose at a 0.7% annual rate, a large upward revision from the 0.3% estimated a month ago. Productivity measures output per hour worked, while unit labor costs measure the cost of labor per unit of output.
The financial markets rarely react to the productivity numbers, largely because they swing wildly from quarter to quarter and partly because economists aren't sure how accurately they measure one of the most important (and elusive) concepts in the economy. In the long run, productivity growth is the only way living standards can rise. The economy has been enjoying a long, gentle increase in productivity that many attribute to the contributions of high technologies such as computers, the Internet and quick and cheap communications.
A month ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that the boom in productivity could end at any time, thus setting off an inflationary spiral. The first quarter numbers do not show an alarming drop in productivity or a disturbing increase in unit labor costs. In 1998, productivity grew 2.2%, nearly double the 1.2% recorded in 1997. In the fourth quarter of 1998, productivity grew 4.3% and unit labor costs fell 0.4%. In the first quarter, output rose at a 4.4% rate while hours worked increased 0.9%. Unit non-labor costs (largely materials and capital) rose 1.9% after falling 1.4% in all of 1998 as commodity prices plunged.
The picture was better in manufacturing. Economists believe they have a better handle on measuring productivity in manufacturing than in services, where the idea of "output" is hard to register. In manufacturing, productivity rose at a 6.2% pace as output rose 1.6% and hours worked fell 4.4%. Unit labor costs in manufacturing fell 1.1%. U.S. businesses stocked their shelves at a brisk pace in April, while sales by wholesalers rose to a new record in a report indicating consumer spending still strong. Total inventories rose 0.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted $288.96 billion after a rise of 0.2% in March. The March data was revised down from an initially reported 0.3%.
Total wholesale sales were a seasonally adjusted record $221.87 billion, marginally up from $221.80 billion in March, which was the previous record. The inventory to sales ratio, which measures how long it would take to deplete stocks totally at the current sales pace, remained steady at 1.3 months worth.
The report suggested that consumer spending, which has been a major factor in the current expansion, now in its ninth year, continued unabated in April. The report said inventories of drugs rose 5.3% to $17.13 billion, up from $16.27 billion in March. Elsewhere inventories of other products saw modest gains and declines. Strong gains were seen in wholesale sales of petroleum products, which rose 7.5% to $13.58 billion compared to $12.63 billion in March. Wholesale sales of automotive products rose 3.2% to $20.83 billion in April compared to $20.19 billion the previous month. Sales of apparel dropped 8.4% to $7.19 billion compared to $7.84 billion in March while sales of professional equipment such as computers fell 2.9% to $21.58 billion.
Thursday
The number of first-time applications for state unemployment benefits rose for the third consecutive week, jumping by 14,000 in the Memorial Day holiday-shortened week. Initial jobless claims rose to 323,000 in the week ended June 5, compared to an upwardly revised 309,000 for the prior week. It was the highest level of claims since 358,000 in the Jan. 9 week. Fresh claims in the week ended May 29 had originally been reported at 305,000.
Weekly jobless claims, which Wall Street analysts had forecast at 307,000 in the latest week, have been hovering near the 300,000 mark since early this year, a level consistent with a robust labor market. A Labor Department spokeswoman said it was not unusual to see a ``bump up'' in the level of claims in a Memorial Day holiday-shortened week.
The four-week average, viewed as a more accurate indicator of longer-term labor conditions, also rose for the third consecutive week, climbing to 308,250 in the week ended June 5, up from 305,250 a week earlier.
Import prices rose for a third straight month in May, led by a continuing increase in petroleum costs. Import prices rose 0.7% last month after a revised 1.0% increase in April that was previously reported as up 0.8%. Export prices were unchanged in May.
Petroleum import prices rose 8.0% in May after a 19.4% surge in April. May was the third straight month that petroleum import prices have seen sharp increases. But excluding volatile petroleum costs, May import prices were up only 0.1%, after falling 0.2% in April.
Inflation sensitive bond prices declined slightly after the figures were released. Traders said the report added to the negative sentiment on inflation. Imports of automotive products had slight price gains last month, but prices of imported capital goods and consumer goods other than autos fell. The biggest gain in import prices was industrial supplies and materials, which rose 2.8% in May after a 4.6% jump in April. Prices of foods, feeds and beverages also rose 0.7% in May after a 0.5% gain in April. The department also said export prices were unchanged in May after rising a revised 0.3% in April. Previously April export prices were reported as up 0.2%.
The biggest gains in May export prices were in foods, feeds and beverages, which rose 0.7% after a 1.0% rise in April, and in industrial supplies and materials, which were up 0.5 percent following a 0.3% rise the prior month. Export prices of automotive vehicles and parts rose 0.2% in May, while agricultural and nonagricultural commodities both were up only 0.1%. But the costs of exported capital goods and consumer goods other than autos fell in May, Labor said.
Friday
Wholesale prices rose modestly in May, settling back from a spike in April when an energy price surge sparked fears of inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) whichmeasures prices paid to the nation's factories, farms and refineries, rose 0.2% last month after a 0.5% gain in April. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core PPI was up only 0.1% in each of April and May. In the first five months of this year, the core PPI has barely budged, down 0.2% in January, up 0.1% in February and flat in March.
The May numbers were in line with economists' expectations. They had anticipated most price increases for finished energy products stemming from an agreement in March among oil exporting countries to curb production. For today, the PPI is in line with expectations and a non-event. The government is scheduled to issue its more intensely watched Consumer Price Index, seen as a better measure of inflation trends, next Wednesday.
Analysts expect the Federal Reserve who next meet to consider interest rate strategy on June 29-30, will weigh May's CPI performance heavily in deciding whether or not to nudge borrowing costs up to keep price pressures in check. Bonds fell after the May wholesale prices report was issued along with a stronger than expected report on May retail sales from the Commerce Department. Prices later recovered to trade slightly below their level from the time before the two reports were published.
The energy component of the monthly PPI was unchanged in May following a 5.1% jump in April. After shooting up a record 29.1% in April, gasoline prices fell 2.7% last month. Food costs rose last month, though, with the wholesale gauge's food component climbing 0.5% following a 0.9% April drop. The department said pork prices increased 8.3% in May while fresh fruit prices were up 12% from April. Despite the favorable performance of overall producer prices last month, there were hints of potential problems down the road.
The crude goods component of the index climbed 5.5% in May, the biggest monthly pickup in around 2-1/2 years since a 6.1% increase in December 1996 as prices for crude oil, natural gas and crude petroleum all jumped. Crude goods prices were up only 1.3 % in April. These warnings signals will likely keep financial markets in some apprehension about the Fed's intentions.
Sales at retail stores posted a solid gain in May, indicating that consumer demand remains robust and doing nothing to allay fears that interest rates could go up soon to cool off the economy. Retail sales rose 1.0% to a seasonally adjusted $242.2 billion, led by strong gains in auto sales. That compared to a revised 0.4% increase in April, previously reported as a 0.1% gain.
The overall increase was above the expectations of analysts who had forecast a 0.8% gain in a Reuters poll. For the 12 months ending in May, retail sales rose a hefty 7.8%. Financial markets reacted cautiously to the report, which many analysts read as increasing the odds of an increase in key interest rates later this month. Inflation sensitive bond prices fell immediately after the report, but then recovered along with the stockmarket futures. Solid consumer demand has been the driving force behind the more than eight-year old expansion in the economy, helping it to weather almost two years of global economic turmoil prompted by Asia's financial crisis with barely a scratch.
Next Weeks Economic Indicators
This week will give of the most important indicators of the entire year. On Monday we get Business Inventories. The market will likely ignore this indicator, as it is a backward looking indicator. If, however, inventories are building, this may give the market an excuse to rally. On Wednesday we get the Consumer Price Index. The market has been waiting for this number for two weeks. If this number shows a big increase in inflation, look out below, as the market will sell strongly! This is one of the most important indicators for Allan Greenspan, so whatever this number reveals he will consider seriously. Many analysts are placing the result of this number on if there will be an interest rate increase by the Fed when they meet at the end of the month. This past week the market sold off, discounting the number, so if we remain flat going into Wednesday we could see a rally after the release. We also get Housing Starts, Industrial Production and the Beige Book. Housing starts have been slipping a bit so if this continues the market will likely be happy. Industrial Production numbers are also normally important but this month theyll be ignored unless they help to confirm the CPI number by revealing that workers are not being productive enough in comparison to what it takes to produce merchandise and services. The beige book will likely be completely ignored, as everyone already knows that the Fed is in a tightening bias now. On Thursday we get Jobless Claims, and Trade Deficit Figures. If there is another record trade deficit the market could start to react to it. Remember 1987? After the crash, the most important indicator for the market was the trade deficit. Last month we saw another record deficit and the market moved higher on the news. The only difference between now and then was that back then we had both a trade deficit and a budget deficit and right now we have a trade deficit and a budget surplus. No matter what, though, the market cannot ignore this news and eventually will sell off it continues to be a bad number. Something to watch...
MARKET CLOSES
Index |
Last Week |
This Week |
Change |
Percent |
Dow Jones |
10799.84 |
10490.51 |
-309.33 |
2.9 |
S&P 500 |
1327.71 |
1293.67 |
-34.04 |
2.6 |
S&P 500 Futures Sept. |
1330.50 |
1308.50 |
-22.00 |
1.6 |
S&P 100 |
672.37 |
654.86 |
-17.51 |
2.6 |
Nasdaq |
2477.96 |
2448.12 |
-29.84 |
1.2 |
Russell 2000 |
442.33 |
438.02 |
-4.31 |
0.9 |
30-Year bond |
5.96% |
6.15% |
Program Trades
Although the market sold off all week, our trades are all still looking great going into expiration. The only problem this month is that we havent been able to get into many Call trades for Spreads. Premiums have also been very tight so there havent been any really good Short Spreads or Outright Sells worth going for. Flat summer markets like this are not that great for getting all of our trades in but the good thing is that were still looking at another profitable month! All trades are indicating a strong 96% probability of success going into expiration next week.
Current Trades
**Trades listed below are all for the current expiration cycle unless otherwise noted. Fill prices are averaged out as reports come in by subscribers being filled.**
Average Entry price |
Weekly |
|||
Bid |
Ask |
last |
||
S&P 500 Cash Trades: |
||||
1415 sold Call $3.00 |
Long Trade |
0 |
.50 |
.25 |
1425 bought Call $2.25 |
$.75 Credit spread |
0 |
.50 |
.13 |
1225 sold Puts $9.00 |
Long Trade |
1.50 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
1215bought Put $8.12 |
$.88 Credit spread |
1.06 |
1.54 |
1.75 |
1200 sold Puts $8.00 |
Ultra Trade |
.63 |
1.00 |
.88 |
1195 bought Put $7.50 |
$.50 Credit spread |
.63 |
1.13 |
.56 |
S&P 100 CashTrades: |
||||
630 sold OEX Puts $8.00 |
Long trade |
1.68 |
1.88 |
1.83 |
625bought OEX Puts $7.00 |
$1.00 credit spread. |
1.25 |
1.32 |
1.32 |
720 sold OEX Call $1.25 |
Long trade |
0 |
.06 |
.06 |
730 bought OEX Calls $.75 |
$.50 credit spread |
0 |
.06 |
.06 |
600 sold Puts $3.13 |
Ultra Trade |
.32 |
.50 |
.32 |
590 bought Puts $2.50 |
$.63 credit spread |
.25 |
.32 |
.32 |
S&P 500 Options Feb. Futures Trades |
||||
Hi |
Low |
Close |
||
Sold 1225 Put average $8.00 |
Long Trade |
2.50 |
.80 |
1.80 |
Bought 1215 Put average $7.00 |
$1.00 credit spread |
N/t |
N/t |
1.40 |
Sold 1200 Put $7.00 |
Ultra Trade |
1.20 |
.60 |
.90 |
Bought 1190 Put $6.25 |
$.75 credit spread |
.90 |
.40 |
.60 |
Copyright © 1998. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AGORA OUTLOOK NEWSLETTER is based upon data that is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed, and subject to change without notice. All projections, forecasts, opinions, and track records cannot be guaranteed to equal our past performance. Persons reading this newsletter are responsible for their actions. Officers and employees of this publication may at times have a position in the securities mentioned, or related services.
Agora Outlook
Publisher Ken Davidson
Fax 250-860-2051
e-mail davidson@silk.net
www.agoraoutlook.com
June Expiration June 4th 1999
This week seemed to have the "fundamentalists" of the market bumping up against the "technicalalists" of the market. (I know thats not a real word but it sounds pretty good) Technicians are screaming that because the market has held above critical break points it should now rally to another all time high. I was surprised to hear this considering how pathetic volume has been all week and very few stocks have moved the market up.
Were now into a gap period for the market having made it through the "fundamental" employment report and we wont be getting another important economic indicator out until next Fridays Producer price Index. More importantly, the Federal Reserve may raise the "fundamental" interest rates as early as June 29-30, during the Feds next meeting. This only gives the "technicalists" an opening for a few days to move out of an oversold market.
Interest rate jitters will probably reappear before next Friday as the 30-year bonds hint of higher interest rates should hold back the markets upward path. It is very close to 6.00%. Besides that, a rally in technology is crucial if the market is to go higher since it does not look as if the bank stocks are going to be in on the action for a while. It appears that the resignation of Fed. Vice Chair Alice Rivlin has been having an impact on these stocks and bonds. Does she know something we ought to know?
The Federal Reserve is in an interesting position. The dollar is going through the roof versus almost every currency, especially the Euro, so if they do raise rates the dollar will go even higher, creating an even higher trade deficit which we know can cause very unhealthy markets. (eg; Crash of 1987, but thats another story!) Thursday's plunge in the Euro and the sharp rise in t-bill rates go hand in hand. That is especially bad when you realize it may cause even more dollars to move to foreign shores.
As we move into trading next week it looks like the "technical traders" will be in charge at first but something tells me that with all of the "fundamental problems" out there, any rally attempt is going to be short lived no matter how good the rebound has been!
Technically
With the market rallying this week it has put it itself into an interesting position. Although daily indicators are just coming out of an oversold position, stochastics, momentum, relative strength and hourly indicators are quite overbought. This is being confirmed by the five-day arms index being in an almost overbought situation. The indicator may become overbought quickly once again as there have been very few stocks moving the market and closing tick readings this week were once again over +900 and Fridays number was +1134 indicating short term tops. From a longer standpoint, the bull/bear indicator of market newsletter writers is becoming extremely tilted to the bullish side indicating a top in the market. It is a contrary indicator. With the volatility index continuing to move lower, any correction that does occur will likely be short lived so we may just be moving into a wider band of consolidation for the market for a few more weeks until there can be a deeply oversold condition created.
Mclellan Oscillator: -7 -100 oversold +100 overbought
Summation Index: +1312
Five day arms: .84 .80 and below, overbought 1.00 and above, oversold
Ten day arms: 1.07 .80 and below, overbought 1.00 and above, oversold
Bulls: 61.6 previous week 60.7 50% plus overbought/bearish
Bears: 27.7 previous week 28.6 50% plus oversold /bullish
Correction: 10.7 previous week 10.7
Five day Qvix: 26.30
Economic Effects
Sales of new homes soared unexpectedly in April as consumers rushed to lock in low mortgage rates amid escalating home prices. Total sales of single-family homes shot up 9.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 978,000, the second strongest monthly rate on record and sharply contrary to economists' forecasts for a modest decline to 890,000. The report showed strong consumer demand was pushing new-home prices to record levels. It further depressed prices in bond markets, already edgy about the possibility that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates to dampen inflation risks.
The yield on the 30-year bond, climbed to 5.98% immediately after the economic data was issued from 5.94% the day before. Stocks also weakened in early trading as pessimism about a potential rate move by the central bank moved through markets in the wake of the home sales report, which complemented other recent data showing little sign of slackening economic momentum.
April's sharp rise in new-home sales followed a revised 0.8% decline in March sales to 896,000. Previously, March sales were at an annual rate of 909,000. Sales in April were the strongest since last November, when new homes were being snapped up at a record pace of 985,000 a year. Every region except the West recorded higher monthly sales, including a 33.5 percent pickup in Midwest sales to a record 211,000 a year.
At April's sales rate, the supply of homes on the market dipped to a record low of 3.7 months' worth from 4.1 months' in March, implying home-price pressures were likely to continue. The mean, or average, price for a new home jumped to a record $193,100 in April from $186,300 in March.
Lending rates for 30-year mortgages dropped to an average 6.92% in April from 7.04% in March but have since moved up modestly. Analysts said the relatively cheap lending rates coupled with plentiful jobs were fostering rising incomes that gave consumers the confidence to undertake long-term financial commitments.
Thursday
The rebound in manufacturing that unsettled the markets on Tuesday didnt seem quite so robust on Thursday. Orders for new factory orders fell 1.2% to $345.4 billion in April behind big drops in aircraft orders and defense goods. Excluding the 12.3% drop in transportation orders, total factory orders rose 0.5%, the third monthly increase in a row.
Total orders increased 2.8% from April 1998 and were up 3.3% for the first four months of the year from year-ago levels. The factory orders report comes one week after the department released a preliminary report on durable goods orders, which fell 2.1% in April. Nondurable goods declined 0.1%.
The report shows just how scattered the recovery in manufacturing is. Orders have fallen in two of the past three months and have increased just 0.4% since December. In April, industrial machinery posted a second straight healthy gain while electronics barely rose. Primary metals showed steady improvement. Processing of other raw materials such as stone, glass and clay, fell. Shipments of factory goods dropped 0.4% to $347.6 billion while inventories sank 0.1% to $463 billion, the sixth drop in a row. Unfilled orders fell 0.4% to $524.5 billion, with the entire drop accounted for by canceled orders for aircraft. Falling inventories should mean factories would have to increase production and hiring to meet rising demand.
Those extra workers will put pressure on an already tight labor market. Manufacturing has shed more than 400,000 workers in the past year, one major factor that's reduced wage pressures. Now the Federal Reserve fears that hiring by factories could be the catalyst for wage-push inflation to break out.
Friday
Next Weeks Economic Indicators
On Tuesday we get Productivity and Costs. This number has been important of late and with the worry of inflation mounting this number could be very important. It is very important to have good productivity if costs are moving higher. The market will watch it closely. There is also Wholesale Trade out but the market will likely ignore the number, as inflation is the main focus on the market right now. On Thursday we get Jobless Claims. Claims have been sitting around 300,00 and as long as they stay there traders will ignore the numbers. For the week, the most important number out will be the Producer Price Index on Friday. The market knows that Allan Greenspan watches wholesale numbers closely and if there is a big rise youll see the market sink.
MARKET CLOSES
Index |
Last Week |
This Week |
Change |
Percent |
Dow Jones |
10559.70 |
10799.84 |
+240.14 |
2.2 |
S&P 500 |
1301.77 |
1327.71 |
+25.94 |
2.0 |
S&P 500 Futures June. |
1298.00 |
1330.50 |
+32.50 |
2.5 |
S&P 100 |
658.58 |
672.37 |
+13.79 |
2.0 |
Nasdaq |
2470.06 |
2477.96 |
+7.90 |
0.3 |
Russell 2000 |
438.68 |
442.33 |
+3.65 |
0.8 |
30-Year bond |
5.83% |
5.96% |
Program Trades
Last week we were able to quickly get into our Put trades for the month and some people were able to catch a few Call trades when the market opened higher on the Monday morning after Mays expiration finished on Friday. So far we havent found any really decent Outright Sells to place and have been hesitant to place Put Short trades as the market doesnt feel like it has completed this correction as of yet. There has been no heavy volume down days with a sharp reversal to even look like it is finished. Nonetheless all of our trades are looking great and with 10 days to expiration all our Put trades have a 91% probability of expiring worthless. Our call trades have a 97% probability.
Current Trades
**Trades listed below are all for the current expiration cycle unless otherwise noted. Fill prices are averaged out as reports come in by subscribers being filled.**
Average Entry price |
Weekly | |||
Bid |
Ask |
last |
||
S&P 500 Cash Trades: |
||||
1415 sold Call $3.00 |
Long Trade |
.13 |
.50 |
.25 |
1425 bought Call $2.25 |
$.75 Credit spread |
.18 |
.54 |
.25 |
1225 sold Puts $9.00 |
Long Trade |
1.50 |
1.75 |
1.50 |
1215bought Put $8.12 |
$.88 Credit spread |
.93 |
1.88 |
2.13 |
1200 sold Puts $8.00 |
Ultra Trade |
.75 |
1.00 |
1.13 |
1195 bought Put $7.50 |
$.50 Credit spread |
.63 |
1.13 |
.88 |
S&P 100 CashTrades: |
||||
630 sold OEX Puts $8.00 |
Long trade |
1.13 |
1.38 |
1.25 |
625bought OEX Puts $7.00 |
$1.00 credit spread. |
1.00 |
1.13 |
1.25 |
720 sold OEX Call $1.25 |
Long trade |
.06 |
.13 |
.13 |
730 bought OEX Calls $.75 |
$.50 credit spread |
0 |
.06 |
.06 |
600 sold Puts $3.13 |
Ultra Trade |
.32 |
.38 |
.38 |
590 bought Puts $2.50 |
$.63 credit spread |
.18 |
.25 |
.18 |
S&P 500 Options Feb. Futures Trades |
||||
Hi |
Low |
Close |
||
Sold 1225 Put average $8.00 |
Long Trade |
1.90 |
1.20 |
1.20 |
Bought 1215 Put average $7.00 |
$1.00 credit spread |
1.30 |
1.05 |
1.05 |
Sold 1200 Put $7.00 |
Ultra Trade |
2.20 |
.75 |
.75 |
Bought 1190 Put $6.25 |
$.75 credit spread |
1.70 |
.65 |
.65 |
Copyright © 1998. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AGORA OUTLOOK NEWSLETTER is based upon data that is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed, and subject to change without notice. All projections, forecasts, opinions, and track records cannot be guaranteed to equal our past performance. Persons reading this newsletter are responsible for their actions. Officers and employees of this publication may at times have a position in the securities mentioned, or related services.
Short Trades |
Long Trades |
Ultra Trades |
Outright Short Sales |
|||||
1999 Current | 170% |
1999 Current | 68% |
1999 Current | 74% |
1999 Current | 42% |
|
1998 | 66% |
1998 | 43% |
1998 | 79% |
1998 | 71% |
|
1997 | 108% |
1997 | 188% |
1997 | 82% |
|||
1996 | 163% |
1996 | 169% |
1996 | 99% |
|||
1995 | 93% |
1995 | 76% |
|||||
1994 | 79% |
1994 | 89% |
|||||
1993 | 177% |
1993 | long |
|||||
1992 | 112% |
1992 | long |
|||||
1991 | 162% |
1991 | long |
|||||
1990 | 166% |
1990 | long |
Futures Trades
Outright Sells & Strangles |
Long Trades |
Ultra Trades |
1999 Current 135% | 1999 Current 46% | 1999 Current 88% |
1998 3 mths. 130% | 1998 3 mths. 93% | 1998 3 mths. 16% |